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Industry experts have expressed deep skepticism regarding recent claims that American energy majors will swiftly invest billions of dollars to revive the country's broken oil infrastructure.

Demand for Iron-Clad Assurances

Lacking an absolute assurance of full reimbursement from the Washington, experts believe global energy giants to proceed with extreme caution.

“It would be too early to comment on any potential investments,” a representative stated in response.

The optimistic timeline of less than a year and a half has been publicly proposed. Nevertheless, industry projections indicate a different picture.

A Likely Schedule

“Chances are going to take multiple years for any meaningful production bounce,” noted an energy analyst.

He suggested energy firms would likely spend:

• Initial phase: Navigating new government and security contracts.
• Year two: Commencing overhaul of equipment.
• Final phase: Reaching a position to meaningfully increase production.

This suggests an rise of around half a million barrels per day perhaps by the end of the decade.

Desire Versus Appetite for Risk

Experts make a important separation between companies' curiosity and their appetite to invest heavily.

“In my view their attention is an high score, on a scale of ten. I think their willingness is a four or five, because there is a lack of certainty yet.”

Seasoned operators in the country echo this view. The thinking is that majors will politically call it fantastic while actually acting with extreme caution.

The Colossal Price Tag

The monetary investment would be vast. Independent estimates suggest that increasing production by between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require over $10 billion in investment over several years.

However, rebuilding production to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a monumental $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years.

The Outstanding Question of Federal Guarantees

The prospect of oil giants being paid back by the US taxpayer has been often floated. Nevertheless, concrete details on this proposal have so far not been announced.

This lack of certainty is the key reason behind the sector's hesitation. Companies seek guarantees against sovereign risk and the chance that a different government could renege on any promise.

“It is essential to be protected from nationalization, that we’ve seen in Venezuela previously.”

Therefore, while political promises runs strong, the operational realities suggest a journey of extreme caution for potential significant investment in the country's energy industry.