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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.