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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."